New Jersey Governor
Chris Christie (R) – 49%
Jon Corzine (D) – 45%
Virginia Governor
Bob McDonnell (R) – 59%
Creigh Deeds (D) – 41%
N.Y. District 23
Bill Owens (D) – 49%
Doug Hoffman (Conservative) – 41%
Christie and McDonnel, both Republicans in heavily-Democratic states, won. Hoffman, a complete underdog on a 3rd party ticket, almost beat professional politician Owens.
Says Michael Barone:
First, in the governor elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the Democratic candidate ran far behind Barack Obama’s percentages in 2008 and the Republican candidates ran ahead of George W. Bush’s percentages in 2004. The numbers are pretty daunting. In Virginia Creigh Deeds won 41% of the votes, way behind Barack Obama’s 53% in 2008. And in New Jersey Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine won 45% of the votes, way behind Obama’s 57% in 2008.
In contrast, the Republican candidates won higher percentages than Bush won in the recent high-water mark of the Republican party in 2004. Republican Bob McDonnell won 59% in Virginia, well ahead of Bush’s 54%. And Republican Chris Christie won 49%, ahead of Bush’s 46%.
The 2009 election results are certainly not going to make it easy for Speaker Nancy Pelosi to round up the needed 218 votes for Democrats’ health care bills.
Says Dick Morris:
Chris Christie’s gutsy win in New Jersey puts the arrogant big spender Jon Corzine in his place. But it is the election in Virginia that probably has more to say to marginal Democratic congressmen considering how to vote on health-care reform.
Obviously, Christie’s victory is a body blow to Obama after Corzine outspent the Republican by five-to-one and the president put on a serious push for the incumbent. Corzine’s defeat sends a message that the nation is moving sharply against Obama.
But Virginia results are the most important. More than 80 Democratic congressmen and twenty senators come from states that John McCain carried in 2008. For them, the sudden switch in Virginia, a swing state that Obama actually carried, heralds tough political times ahead.
New Jersey is the quintessential blue state. If it goes Republican, blue state congressmen needn’t worry. Their districts are likely still safe. But when a Republican in Virginia wins by 20 points, it sends a message to red-state Democratic congressmen to take cover.
Until last night, Democratic moderates, the so-called blue dogs, could bask in the light of their candidate’s success in 2008. But now they must hear hoof beats behind them. The party discipline on which Obama depends to pass a health-care program that Americans reject by 42 percent for, 55 percent against (Rasmussen again) will only work if beleaguered Democratic incumbents can wrap themselves in Obama’s cloak and tough out the popular criticism. But the limits of Obama’s drawing power are readily apparent in the Republicans’ 20-point victory in Virginia and the race in New Jersey.
In the coming weeks, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will be asking their troops to cast potentially career-ending votes for health-care changes, Medicare cuts, higher taxes, and fines on the uninsured. Whether they take that risk depends on their faith in Obama’s drawing power.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. The same anger that dumped two big Democrats into the unemployment line yesterday is the same anger that will do the same to wimpy RINO Republicans.
New Jersey, Governor, Christie, Corzine, Virginia, McDonnell, Deeds, Owens, Hoffman, Republican, Democrat, Obama’
